Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jakob Marsee CF
- 2 Kyle Stowers 1B
- 3 Otto Lopez SS
- 4 Xavier Edwards 2B
- 5 Liam Hicks C
- 6 Owen Caissie RF
- 7 Connor Norby DH
- 8 Graham Pauley 3B
- 9 Heriberto Hernández LF
- 1 Jung Hoo Lee RF
- 2 Matt Chapman 3B
- 3 Luis Arraez 2B
- 4 Casey Schmitt DH
- 5 Rafael Devers 1B
- 6 Heliot Ramos LF
- 7 Drew Gilbert CF
- 8 Christian Koss SS
- 9 Patrick Bailey C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with MIA listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.17 vs actual lineup 3.19
- Player execution −0.19 R/G Players fell 0.19 short of the lineup's 3.19 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.17 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Pauley HR from the 8-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.44 vs actual lineup 3.49
- Player execution +2.51 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.49 projection by 2.51 (scored 6)
- Game variance +2.56 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Arraez 0-for-3 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 3.4 — actual was 3 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.