Seattle Mariners vs St. Louis Cardinals
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 J.P. Crawford SS
- 2 Cal Raleigh C
- 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
- 4 Randy Arozarena LF
- 5 Luke Raley RF
- 6 Dominic Canzone DH
- 7 Connor Joe 1B
- 8 Cole Young 2B
- 9 Leo Rivas 3B
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera C
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Jordan Walker RF
- 5 Nolan Gorman DH
- 6 Masyn Winn SS
- 7 Nathan Church LF
- 8 Ramón Urías 3B
- 9 Victor Scott II CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-0 with SEA listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.25 vs actual lineup 3.22
- Player execution −0.22 R/G Players fell 0.22 short of the lineup's 3.22 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.25 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Crawford 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost −0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.17 vs actual lineup 3.20
- Player execution −1.20 R/G Players fell 1.20 short of the lineup's 3.20 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.17 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Church HR from the 7-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.3 – 3.2 — actual was 3 – 2.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.