New York Yankees vs Houston Astros
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Trent Grisham CF
- 2 Ben Rice 1B
- 3 Aaron Judge RF
- 4 Cody Bellinger LF
- 5 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
- 6 Amed Rosario DH
- 7 Austin Wells C
- 8 Ryan McMahon 3B
- 9 José Caballero SS
- 1 Carlos Correa SS
- 2 Yordan Alvarez LF
- 3 Isaac Paredes 3B
- 4 Jose Altuve 2B
- 5 Christian Walker 1B
- 6 Yainer Diaz DH
- 7 Cam Smith RF
- 8 Christian Vázquez C
- 9 Brice Matthews CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| HOU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / D+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with NYY listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.99 vs actual lineup 4.97
- Player execution +3.03 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.97 projection by 3.03 (scored 8)
- Game variance +3.01 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Wells HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.52 vs actual lineup 3.51
- Player execution −0.51 R/G Players fell 0.51 short of the lineup's 3.51 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.52 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Altuve 0-for-3 batting 4th
Optimal lineups projected 5.0 – 3.5 — actual was 8 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.