San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Ramón Laureano LF
- 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
- 3 Jackson Merrill CF
- 4 Manny Machado 3B
- 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 6 Gavin Sheets DH
- 7 Ty France 1B
- 8 Freddy Fermin C
- 9 Jake Cronenworth 2B
- 1 Geraldo Perdomo SS
- 2 Ketel Marte 2B
- 3 Corbin Carroll RF
- 4 Adrian Del Castillo C
- 5 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF
- 6 Ildemaro Vargas 1B
- 7 Nolan Arenado 3B
- 8 Jose Fernandez DH
- 9 Alek Thomas CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| AZ | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-1 with SD listed first across 2 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.43 vs actual lineup 3.37
- Player execution +2.63 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.37 projection by 2.63 (scored 6)
- Game variance +2.58 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
France HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.11 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.86 vs actual lineup 4.75
- Player execution −0.75 R/G Players fell 0.75 short of the lineup's 4.75 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.86 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Thomas HR from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.4 – 4.9 — actual was 6 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.