ARCHIVE April 25, 2026
April 25, 2026 · NL West

Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants

April 25, 2026Oracle ParkOvercast 56°F · 10 mph, Out To CF
AWAY
Miami Marlins
13-14
2
vs
HOME
San Francisco Giants
12-15
6

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIA
Eury Pérez
Eury Pérez
IP 5.1
HOME · SF
Robbie Ray
Robbie Ray
IP 5

Lineups

AWAY · MIA
  1. 1 Agustín Ramírez C
  2. 2 Otto Lopez SS
  3. 3 Kyle Stowers LF
  4. 4 Connor Norby 1B
  5. 5 Xavier Edwards 2B
  6. 6 Heriberto Hernandez RF
  7. 7 Leo Jimenez DH
  8. 8 Javier Sanoja 3B
  9. 9 Esteury Ruiz CF
HOME · SF
  1. 1 Willy Adames SS
  2. 2 Luis Arraez 2B
  3. 3 Matt Chapman DH
  4. 4 Rafael Devers 1B
  5. 5 Casey Schmitt 3B
  6. 6 Jung Hoo Lee RF
  7. 7 Heliot Ramos LF
  8. 8 Drew Gilbert CF
  9. 9 Patrick Bailey C

Box score

  123456789 R
MIA 001000001 2
SF 000013020 6

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIA
Clayton McCullough
C+ Lineup 1.4 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.6 R
HOME · SF
Tony Vitello
B- Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 1.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIA
4-6 L1 -6 run diff
LWLLLLWLWW
HOME · SF
1-8 L2 -25 run diff
LLWLLLLL?L

Season series: 1-2 with MIA listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Miami Marlins
  • Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.19 vs actual lineup 3.12
  • Player execution −1.12 R/G Players fell 1.12 short of the lineup's 3.12 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Stowers 0-for-3 batting 3rd

HOME · San Francisco Giants
  • Manager lineup cost −0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.35 vs actual lineup 4.38
  • Player execution +1.62 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.38 projection by 1.62 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +1.65 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Ramos HR from the 7-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 4.3 — actual was 2 – 6.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.