Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Agustín Ramírez C
- 2 Otto Lopez SS
- 3 Kyle Stowers LF
- 4 Connor Norby 1B
- 5 Xavier Edwards 2B
- 6 Heriberto Hernandez RF
- 7 Leo Jimenez DH
- 8 Javier Sanoja 3B
- 9 Esteury Ruiz CF
- 1 Willy Adames SS
- 2 Luis Arraez 2B
- 3 Matt Chapman DH
- 4 Rafael Devers 1B
- 5 Casey Schmitt 3B
- 6 Jung Hoo Lee RF
- 7 Heliot Ramos LF
- 8 Drew Gilbert CF
- 9 Patrick Bailey C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with MIA listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.19 vs actual lineup 3.12
- Player execution −1.12 R/G Players fell 1.12 short of the lineup's 3.12 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Stowers 0-for-3 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost −0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.35 vs actual lineup 4.38
- Player execution +1.62 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.38 projection by 1.62 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.65 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Ramos HR from the 7-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 4.3 — actual was 2 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.