Seattle Mariners vs St. Louis Cardinals
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Rob Refsnyder RF
- 2 Cal Raleigh DH
- 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
- 4 Josh Naylor 1B
- 5 Randy Arozarena LF
- 6 J.P. Crawford SS
- 7 Mitch Garver C
- 8 Cole Young 2B
- 9 Will Wilson 3B
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera DH
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Jordan Walker RF
- 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
- 6 Masyn Winn SS
- 7 Nathan Church LF
- 8 Pedro Pagés C
- 9 Victor Scott II CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| STL | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-0 with SEA listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.10 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.52 vs actual lineup 4.42
- Player execution +6.58 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.42 projection by 6.58 (scored 11)
- Game variance +6.48 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Young HR from the 8-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.81 vs actual lineup 3.83
- Player execution +5.17 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.83 projection by 5.17 (scored 9)
- Game variance +5.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Church HR from the 7-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.5 – 3.8 — actual was 11 – 9.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.