New York Yankees vs Houston Astros
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Trent Grisham CF
- 2 Aaron Judge RF
- 3 Cody Bellinger LF
- 4 Ben Rice 1B
- 5 Giancarlo Stanton DH
- 6 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
- 7 J.C. Escarra C
- 8 Ryan McMahon 3B
- 9 José Caballero SS
- 1 Carlos Correa SS
- 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
- 3 Isaac Paredes 3B
- 4 Jose Altuve 2B
- 5 Christian Walker 1B
- 6 Cam Smith RF
- 7 Dustin Harris LF
- 8 Yainer Diaz C
- 9 Brice Matthews CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| HOU | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / D+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with NYY listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.33 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 5.02 vs actual lineup 4.69
- Player execution +7.31 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.69 projection by 7.31 (scored 12)
- Game variance +6.98 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
McMahon HR from the 8-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.20 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.18 vs actual lineup 2.98
- Player execution +1.02 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.98 projection by 1.02 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.82 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Diaz HR from the 8-hole
Optimal lineups projected 5.0 – 3.2 — actual was 12 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.