Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jarren Duran LF
- 2 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 3 Masataka Yoshida DH
- 4 Willson Contreras 1B
- 5 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 6 Trevor Story SS
- 7 Marcelo Mayer 2B
- 8 Caleb Durbin 3B
- 9 Carlos Narváez C
- 1 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 2 Taylor Ward LF
- 3 Adley Rutschman C
- 4 Pete Alonso 1B
- 5 Dylan Beavers RF
- 6 Samuel Basallo DH
- 7 Leody Taveras CF
- 8 Coby Mayo 3B
- 9 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| BAL | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with BOS listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.15 vs actual lineup 3.09
- Player execution −0.09 R/G Players fell 0.09 short of the lineup's 3.09 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.15 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Rafaela 0-for-4 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.93 vs actual lineup 4.87
- Player execution +5.13 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.87 projection by 5.13 (scored 10)
- Game variance +5.07 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Mayo HR from the 8-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 4.9 — actual was 3 – 10.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.