Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Michael Busch 1B
- 3 Alex Bregman 3B
- 4 Ian Happ LF
- 5 Seiya Suzuki RF
- 6 Moisés Ballesteros DH
- 7 Carson Kelly C
- 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 9 Dansby Swanson SS
- 1 Shohei Ohtani DH
- 2 Freddie Freeman 1B
- 3 Will Smith C
- 4 Kyle Tucker RF
- 5 Teoscar Hernández LF
- 6 Max Muncy 3B
- 7 Andy Pages CF
- 8 Hyeseong Kim SS
- 9 Alex Freeland 2B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with CHC listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.40 vs actual lineup 4.44
- Player execution +1.56 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.44 projection by 1.56 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.60 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Swanson HR from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.22 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.26 vs actual lineup 4.48
- Player execution −0.48 R/G Players fell 0.48 short of the lineup's 4.48 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.26 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Ohtani 0-for-3 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.4 – 4.3 — actual was 6 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.