San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Ramón Laureano LF
- 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
- 3 Jackson Merrill CF
- 4 Manny Machado 3B
- 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 6 Miguel Andujar DH
- 7 Ty France 1B
- 8 Freddy Fermin C
- 9 Jake Cronenworth 2B
- 1 Edouard Julien DH
- 2 Mickey Moniak LF
- 3 TJ Rumfield 1B
- 4 Willi Castro 2B
- 5 Troy Johnston RF
- 6 Ezequiel Tovar SS
- 7 Brett Sullivan C
- 8 Kyle Karros 3B
- 9 Jake McCarthy CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| COL | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 6-1 with SD listed first across 7 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.68 vs actual lineup 4.73
- Player execution +5.27 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.73 projection by 5.27 (scored 10)
- Game variance +5.32 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Sheets HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.74 vs actual lineup 4.66
- Player execution +3.34 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.66 projection by 3.34 (scored 8)
- Game variance +3.26 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 4.7 — actual was 10 – 8.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.