New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Paul Goldschmidt 1B
- 2 Aaron Judge RF
- 3 Cody Bellinger CF
- 4 Giancarlo Stanton DH
- 5 Amed Rosario 3B
- 6 Randal Grichuk LF
- 7 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
- 8 José Caballero SS
- 9 Austin Wells C
- 1 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 2 Willson Contreras 1B
- 3 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 4 Trevor Story SS
- 5 Andruw Monasterio DH
- 6 Jarren Duran LF
- 7 Caleb Durbin 3B
- 8 Connor Wong C
- 9 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-0 with NYY listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.62 vs actual lineup 3.69
- Player execution +0.31 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.69 projection by 0.31 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.38 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Goldschmidt 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.19 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.80 vs actual lineup 2.61
- Player execution −1.61 R/G Players fell 1.61 short of the lineup's 2.61 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −1.80 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Rafaela 0-for-4 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 3.6 – 2.8 — actual was 4 – 1.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.