Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Kyle Schwarber LF
- 2 Trea Turner SS
- 3 Bryce Harper DH
- 4 Felix Reyes 1B
- 5 Adolis García RF
- 6 Alec Bohm 3B
- 7 Edmundo Sosa 2B
- 8 Justin Crawford CF
- 9 Rafael Marchán C
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Alex Bregman 3B
- 3 Ian Happ LF
- 4 Seiya Suzuki RF
- 5 Michael Busch 1B
- 6 Dansby Swanson SS
- 7 Moisés Ballesteros DH
- 8 Miguel Amaya C
- 9 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| CHC | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-6 with PHI listed first across 7 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.10 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.90 vs actual lineup 4.81
- Player execution −2.81 R/G Players fell 2.81 short of the lineup's 4.81 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −2.90 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Schwarber 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.85 vs actual lineup 4.80
- Player execution +2.20 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.80 projection by 2.20 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.15 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Crow-Armstrong 3-for-4 from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 4.8 — actual was 2 – 7.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.