ARCHIVE April 22, 2026
April 22, 2026 · AL Cent

Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians

April 22, 2026Progressive FieldSunny 62°F · 8 mph, In From LF
AWAY
Houston Astros
10-16
2
vs
HOME
Cleveland Guardians
14-12
0

Starting pitchers

AWAY · HOU
Peter Lambert
Peter Lambert
IP 6
HOME · CLE
Tanner Bibee
Tanner Bibee
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · HOU
  1. 1 Carlos Correa SS
  2. 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
  3. 3 Jose Altuve 2B
  4. 4 Christian Walker 1B
  5. 5 Isaac Paredes 3B
  6. 6 Cam Smith RF
  7. 7 Daniel Johnson CF
  8. 8 Christian Vázquez C
  9. 9 Brice Matthews LF
HOME · CLE
  1. 1 Steven Kwan CF
  2. 2 Chase DeLauter RF
  3. 3 José Ramírez DH
  4. 4 Kyle Manzardo 1B
  5. 5 George Valera LF
  6. 6 Daniel Schneemann 3B
  7. 7 Juan Brito 2B
  8. 8 Bo Naylor C
  9. 9 Brayan Rocchio SS

Box score

  123456789 R
HOU 200000000 2
CLE 000000000 0

Manager comparison

Both managers grade D+ / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · HOU
Joe Espada
D+ Lineup 2.8 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · CLE
Stephen Vogt
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · HOU
5-4 W1 -2 run diff
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HOME · CLE
6-4 W3 +7 run diff
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Season series: 2-1 with HOU listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Houston Astros
  • Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.10 vs actual lineup 4.07
  • Player execution −2.07 R/G Players fell 2.07 short of the lineup's 4.07 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −2.10 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Altuve 0-for-4 batting 3rd

HOME · Cleveland Guardians
  • Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.48 vs actual lineup 3.42
  • Player execution −3.42 R/G Players fell 3.42 short of the lineup's 3.42 projection (scored 0)
  • Game variance −3.48 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.1 – 3.5 — actual was 2 – 0.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.