St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera DH
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Jordan Walker RF
- 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
- 6 Masyn Winn SS
- 7 Nathan Church LF
- 8 Pedro Pagés C
- 9 Victor Scott II CF
- 1 Jakob Marsee CF
- 2 Kyle Stowers LF
- 3 Otto Lopez SS
- 4 Xavier Edwards 2B
- 5 Liam Hicks C
- 6 Agustín Ramírez DH
- 7 Owen Caissie RF
- 8 Graham Pauley 3B
- 9 Connor Norby 1B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| MIA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with STL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.87 vs actual lineup 4.86
- Player execution +0.14 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.86 projection by 0.14 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.13 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Church HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.88 vs actual lineup 4.83
- Player execution −1.83 R/G Players fell 1.83 short of the lineup's 4.83 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −1.88 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Stowers 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 4.9 — actual was 5 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.