ARCHIVE April 21, 2026
April 21, 2026 · AL Cent

Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers

April 21, 2026Comerica ParkCloudy 71°F · 9 mph, R To L
AWAY
Milwaukee Brewers
13-9
12
vs
HOME
Detroit Tigers
12-12
4

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIL
Kyle Harrison
Kyle Harrison
IP 3
HOME · DET
Keider Montero
Keider Montero
IP 5.2

Lineups

AWAY · MIL
  1. 1 Brice Turang 2B
  2. 2 William Contreras C
  3. 3 Jake Bauers 1B
  4. 4 Gary Sánchez DH
  5. 5 Garrett Mitchell CF
  6. 6 Luis Rengifo 3B
  7. 7 Sal Frelick RF
  8. 8 David Hamilton SS
  9. 9 Blake Perkins LF
HOME · DET
  1. 1 Jahmai Jones DH
  2. 2 Gleyber Torres 2B
  3. 3 Kevin McGonigle SS
  4. 4 Matt Vierling RF
  5. 5 Dillon Dingler C
  6. 6 Riley Greene LF
  7. 7 Spencer Torkelson 1B
  8. 8 Hao-Yu Lee 3B
  9. 9 Javier Báez CF

Box score

  123456789 R
MIL 030000270 12
DET 000100003 4

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / C- entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIL
Pat Murphy
B- Lineup 0.6 R Bunts 1.4 R IBBs 3.1 R
HOME · DET
A.J. Hinch
C- Lineup 2.7 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIL
6-3 W2 +33 run diff
WW?LLWWWLW
HOME · DET
3-7 L4 -5 run diff
LLLLWWLWLL

Season series: 1-2 with MIL listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Milwaukee Brewers
  • Manager lineup cost −0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.70 vs actual lineup 3.73
  • Player execution +8.27 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.73 projection by 8.27 (scored 12)
  • Game variance +8.30 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Hamilton 4-for-5 from the 8-hole

HOME · Detroit Tigers
  • Manager lineup cost −0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.80 vs actual lineup 2.83
  • Player execution +1.17 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.83 projection by 1.17 (scored 4)
  • Game variance +1.20 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Carpenter 0-for-3 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.7 – 2.8 — actual was 12 – 4.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.