ARCHIVE April 21, 2026
April 21, 2026 · AL West

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners

April 21, 2026T-Mobile ParkRoof Closed 58°F · 6 mph, Out To LF
AWAY
Oakland Athletics
13-11
5
vs
HOME
Seattle Mariners
10-15
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · ATH
Jacob Lopez
Jacob Lopez
IP 5.1
HOME · SEA
Luis Castillo
Luis Castillo
IP 5

Lineups

AWAY · ATH
  1. 1 Nick Kurtz 1B
  2. 2 Shea Langeliers C
  3. 3 Carlos Cortes DH
  4. 4 Tyler Soderstrom LF
  5. 5 Jacob Wilson SS
  6. 6 Jeff McNeil 2B
  7. 7 Max Muncy 3B
  8. 8 Lawrence Butler RF
  9. 9 Zack Gelof CF
HOME · SEA
  1. 1 Rob Refsnyder RF
  2. 2 Cal Raleigh DH
  3. 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
  4. 4 Josh Naylor 1B
  5. 5 Randy Arozarena LF
  6. 6 J.P. Crawford SS
  7. 7 Mitch Garver C
  8. 8 Cole Young 2B
  9. 9 Leo Rivas 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
ATH 100101101 5
SEA 001010000 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C- / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · ATH
Mark Kotsay
C- Lineup 2.6 R Bunts 1.1 R IBBs 1.1 R
HOME · SEA
Dan Wilson
B- Lineup 1.3 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · ATH
5-5 W2 -1 run diff
WWLLWLLWWL
HOME · SEA
5-5 W2 +2 run diff
WWLWLLLWWL

Season series: 2-1 with ATH listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Oakland Athletics
  • Manager lineup cost +0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 5.04 vs actual lineup 4.96
  • Player execution +0.04 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.96 projection by 0.04 (scored 5)
  • Game variance −0.04 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Muncy 2-for-5 from the 7-hole

HOME · Seattle Mariners
  • Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.93 vs actual lineup 4.93
  • Player execution −2.92 R/G Players fell 2.92 short of the lineup's 4.93 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −2.93 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 5.0 – 4.9 — actual was 5 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.