ARCHIVE April 21, 2026
April 21, 2026 · AL Cent

Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians

April 21, 2026Progressive FieldCloudy 69°F · 11 mph, Out To RF
AWAY
Houston Astros
9-16
5
vs
HOME
Cleveland Guardians
14-11
8

Starting pitchers

AWAY · HOU
Ryan Weiss
Ryan Weiss
IP 3.1
HOME · CLE
Parker Messick
Parker Messick
IP 5

Lineups

AWAY · HOU
  1. 1 Carlos Correa SS
  2. 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
  3. 3 Jose Altuve 2B
  4. 4 Christian Walker 1B
  5. 5 Isaac Paredes 3B
  6. 6 Cam Smith RF
  7. 7 Yainer Diaz C
  8. 8 Brice Matthews CF
  9. 9 Dustin Harris LF
HOME · CLE
  1. 1 Steven Kwan CF
  2. 2 Chase DeLauter DH
  3. 3 José Ramírez 3B
  4. 4 Kyle Manzardo 1B
  5. 5 George Valera RF
  6. 6 Daniel Schneemann 2B
  7. 7 Angel Martínez LF
  8. 8 Austin Hedges C
  9. 9 Brayan Rocchio SS

Box score

  123456789 R
HOU 000030101 5
CLE 110000060 8

Manager comparison

Both managers grade D+ / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · HOU
Joe Espada
D+ Lineup 2.8 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · CLE
Stephen Vogt
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · HOU
5-4 W1 -2 run diff
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HOME · CLE
6-4 W3 +7 run diff
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Season series: 2-1 with HOU listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Houston Astros
  • Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.44 vs actual lineup 2.45
  • Player execution +2.55 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.45 projection by 2.55 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +2.56 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Altuve 0-for-5 batting 3rd

HOME · Cleveland Guardians
  • Manager lineup cost −0.19 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.66 vs actual lineup 4.84
  • Player execution +3.16 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.84 projection by 3.16 (scored 8)
  • Game variance +3.34 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Martínez HR from the 7-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.4 – 4.7 — actual was 5 – 8.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.