St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera C
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Jordan Walker RF
- 5 Nolan Gorman DH
- 6 Masyn Winn SS
- 7 Ramón Urías 3B
- 8 Thomas Saggese LF
- 9 Victor Scott II CF
- 1 Jakob Marsee CF
- 2 Kyle Stowers LF
- 3 Otto Lopez SS
- 4 Xavier Edwards 2B
- 5 Liam Hicks DH
- 6 Agustín Ramírez C
- 7 Owen Caissie RF
- 8 Graham Pauley 3B
- 9 Connor Norby 1B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with STL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.50 vs actual lineup 3.48
- Player execution −0.48 R/G Players fell 0.48 short of the lineup's 3.48 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.50 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Wetherholt 0-for-3 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.21 vs actual lineup 3.20
- Player execution +1.80 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.20 projection by 1.80 (scored 5)
- Game variance +1.79 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Marsee 0-for-3 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 3.5 – 3.2 — actual was 3 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.