St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera DH
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Jordan Walker RF
- 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
- 6 Masyn Winn SS
- 7 Nathan Church LF
- 8 Pedro Pagés C
- 9 Victor Scott CF
- 1 Carlos Correa SS
- 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
- 3 Jose Altuve 2B
- 4 Christian Walker 1B
- 5 Isaac Paredes 3B
- 6 Cam Smith RF
- 7 Yainer Diaz C
- 8 Shay Whitcomb LF
- 9 Taylor Trammell CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / D+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-0 with STL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.82 vs actual lineup 4.81
- Player execution +2.19 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.81 projection by 2.19 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.18 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Burleson 0-for-5 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost −0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.39 vs actual lineup 4.45
- Player execution +0.55 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.45 projection by 0.55 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.61 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Correa 0-for-3 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 4.4 — actual was 7 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.