Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
- 2 Drake Baldwin C
- 3 Matt Olson 1B
- 4 Austin Riley 3B
- 5 Ozzie Albies 2B
- 6 Mike Yastrzemski LF
- 7 Dominic Smith DH
- 8 Mauricio Dubón SS
- 9 Michael Harris II CF
- 1 Trea Turner SS
- 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
- 3 Bryce Harper 1B
- 4 Adolis García RF
- 5 Brandon Marsh LF
- 6 Alec Bohm 3B
- 7 Bryson Stott 2B
- 8 Rafael Marchán C
- 9 Justin Crawford CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 5-1 with ATL listed first across 6 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.90 vs actual lineup 4.85
- Player execution −0.85 R/G Players fell 0.85 short of the lineup's 4.85 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.90 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
II HR from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.92 vs actual lineup 3.91
- Player execution −1.91 R/G Players fell 1.91 short of the lineup's 3.91 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.92 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
García 0-for-3 batting 4th
Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 3.9 — actual was 4 – 2.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.