ARCHIVE April 18, 2026
April 18, 2026 · NL Cent

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs

April 18, 2026Wrigley FieldPartly Cloudy 51°F · 16 mph, L To R
AWAY
New York Mets
7-14
2
vs
HOME
Chicago Cubs
11-9
4

Starting pitchers

AWAY · NYM
Freddy Peralta
Freddy Peralta
IP 5.2
HOME · CHC
Jameson Taillon
Jameson Taillon
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · NYM
  1. 1 Carson Benge LF
  2. 2 Bo Bichette 3B
  3. 3 Francisco Lindor SS
  4. 4 Luis Robert Jr. CF
  5. 5 MJ Melendez DH
  6. 6 Francisco Alvarez C
  7. 7 Mark Vientos 1B
  8. 8 Brett Baty RF
  9. 9 Marcus Semien 2B
HOME · CHC
  1. 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
  2. 2 Michael Busch 1B
  3. 3 Alex Bregman 3B
  4. 4 Ian Happ LF
  5. 5 Seiya Suzuki RF
  6. 6 Moisés Ballesteros DH
  7. 7 Miguel Amaya C
  8. 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
  9. 9 Dansby Swanson SS

Box score

  123456789 R
NYM 010000010 2
CHC 010003000 4

Manager comparison

Both managers grade D+ / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · NYM
Carlos Mendoza
D+ Lineup 2.9 R Bunts 1.4 R IBBs 0.9 R
HOME · CHC
Craig Counsell
C Lineup 1.7 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.3 R

Recent form

AWAY · NYM
5-4 L1 +2 run diff
LW?WWLWLLW
HOME · CHC
10-0 W10 +27 run diff
WWWWWWWWWW

Season series: 0-3 with NYM listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · New York Mets
  • Manager lineup cost +0.21 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.15 vs actual lineup 3.94
  • Player execution −1.94 R/G Players fell 1.94 short of the lineup's 3.94 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −2.15 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Vientos HR from the 7-hole

HOME · Chicago Cubs
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.79 vs actual lineup 3.82
  • Player execution +0.18 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.82 projection by 0.18 (scored 4)
  • Game variance +0.21 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Hoerner 0-for-4 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.2 – 3.8 — actual was 2 – 4.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.