San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Angels
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jake Cronenworth 2B
- 2 Fernando Tatis RF
- 3 Jackson Merrill CF
- 4 Manny Machado 3B
- 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 6 Gavin Sheets LF
- 7 Nick Castellanos DH
- 8 Ty France 1B
- 9 Luis Campusano C
- 1 Zach Neto SS
- 2 Mike Trout CF
- 3 Nolan Schanuel 1B
- 4 Jo Adell DH
- 5 Yoán Moncada 3B
- 6 Oswald Peraza 2B
- 7 Josh Lowe RF
- 8 Logan O'Hoppe C
- 9 Adam Frazier LF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LAA | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with SD listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.32 vs actual lineup 2.33
- Player execution −2.33 R/G Players fell 2.33 short of the lineup's 2.33 projection (scored 0)
- Game variance −2.32 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Cronenworth 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.73 vs actual lineup 4.68
- Player execution +3.32 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.68 projection by 3.32 (scored 8)
- Game variance +3.27 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lowe HR from the 7-hole
Optimal lineups projected 2.3 – 4.7 — actual was 0 – 8.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.