ARCHIVE April 17, 2026
April 17, 2026 · AL Cent

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians

April 17, 2026Progressive FieldPartly Cloudy 64°F · 3 mph, In From RF
AWAY
Baltimore Orioles
10-10
6
vs
HOME
Cleveland Guardians
11-10
4

Starting pitchers

AWAY · BAL
Chris Bassitt
Chris Bassitt
IP 5
HOME · CLE
Tanner Bibee
Tanner Bibee
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · BAL
  1. 1 Gunnar Henderson SS
  2. 2 Taylor Ward LF
  3. 3 Pete Alonso 1B
  4. 4 Dylan Beavers DH
  5. 5 Samuel Basallo C
  6. 6 Leody Taveras CF
  7. 7 Colton Cowser RF
  8. 8 Coby Mayo 3B
  9. 9 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
HOME · CLE
  1. 1 Steven Kwan CF
  2. 2 Chase DeLauter RF
  3. 3 José Ramírez 3B
  4. 4 Kyle Manzardo DH
  5. 5 Rhys Hoskins 1B
  6. 6 Daniel Schneemann SS
  7. 7 Angel Martínez LF
  8. 8 Bo Naylor C
  9. 9 Juan Brito 2B

Box score

  123456789 R
BAL 000000060 6
CLE 000000400 4

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · BAL
Craig Albernaz
C+ Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 1.8 R
HOME · CLE
Stephen Vogt
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · BAL
3-7 L2 -25 run diff
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HOME · CLE
6-4 W3 +7 run diff
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Season series: 1-3 with BAL listed first across 4 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Baltimore Orioles
  • Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.18 vs actual lineup 4.14
  • Player execution +1.86 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.14 projection by 1.86 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +1.82 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Jackson HR from the 9-hole

HOME · Cleveland Guardians
  • Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.74 vs actual lineup 4.78
  • Player execution −0.78 R/G Players fell 0.78 short of the lineup's 4.78 projection (scored 4)
  • Game variance −0.74 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.2 – 4.7 — actual was 6 – 4.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.