Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
- 2 Drake Baldwin C
- 3 Matt Olson 1B
- 4 Austin Riley 3B
- 5 Ozzie Albies 2B
- 6 Mike Yastrzemski LF
- 7 Dominic Smith DH
- 8 Mauricio Dubón SS
- 9 Michael Harris II CF
- 1 Trea Turner SS
- 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
- 3 Bryce Harper 1B
- 4 Adolis García RF
- 5 Edmundo Sosa 2B
- 6 J.T. Realmuto C
- 7 Alec Bohm 3B
- 8 Justin Crawford CF
- 9 Otto Kemp LF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 5-1 with ATL listed first across 6 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.90 vs actual lineup 4.85
- Player execution +4.15 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.85 projection by 4.15 (scored 9)
- Game variance +4.10 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Smith HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.11 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.88 vs actual lineup 2.77
- Player execution −2.77 R/G Players fell 2.77 short of the lineup's 2.77 projection (scored 0)
- Game variance −2.88 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Schwarber 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 2.9 — actual was 9 – 0.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.