ARCHIVE April 17, 2026
April 17, 2026 · NL East

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

April 17, 2026Citizens Bank ParkPartly Cloudy 78°F · 11 mph, In From LF
AWAY
Atlanta Braves
13-7
9
vs
HOME
Philadelphia Phillies
8-11
0

Starting pitchers

AWAY · ATL
Martín Pérez
Martín Pérez
IP 6
HOME · PHI
Taijuan Walker
Taijuan Walker
IP 4

Lineups

AWAY · ATL
  1. 1 Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
  2. 2 Drake Baldwin C
  3. 3 Matt Olson 1B
  4. 4 Austin Riley 3B
  5. 5 Ozzie Albies 2B
  6. 6 Mike Yastrzemski LF
  7. 7 Dominic Smith DH
  8. 8 Mauricio Dubón SS
  9. 9 Michael Harris II CF
HOME · PHI
  1. 1 Trea Turner SS
  2. 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
  3. 3 Bryce Harper 1B
  4. 4 Adolis García RF
  5. 5 Edmundo Sosa 2B
  6. 6 J.T. Realmuto C
  7. 7 Alec Bohm 3B
  8. 8 Justin Crawford CF
  9. 9 Otto Kemp LF

Box score

  123456789 R
ATL 241000011 9
PHI 000000000 0

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / C- entering this matchup.

AWAY · ATL
Walt Weiss
C+ Lineup 1.7 R Bunts 0.0 R IBBs 0.2 R
HOME · PHI
Don Mattingly
C- Lineup 2.2 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.7 R Interim

Recent form

AWAY · ATL
7-3 L1 +18 run diff
LWLWWWLWWW
HOME · PHI
7-3 L2 +3 run diff
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Season series: 5-1 with ATL listed first across 6 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Atlanta Braves
  • Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.90 vs actual lineup 4.85
  • Player execution +4.15 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.85 projection by 4.15 (scored 9)
  • Game variance +4.10 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Smith HR from the 7-hole

HOME · Philadelphia Phillies
  • Manager lineup cost +0.11 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.88 vs actual lineup 2.77
  • Player execution −2.77 R/G Players fell 2.77 short of the lineup's 2.77 projection (scored 0)
  • Game variance −2.88 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Schwarber 0-for-4 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 2.9 — actual was 9 – 0.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.