ARCHIVE April 16, 2026
April 16, 2026 · AL West

Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros

April 16, 2026Daikin ParkRoof Closed 73°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Colorado Rockies
7-12
3
vs
HOME
Houston Astros
8-12
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · COL
Chase Dollander
Chase Dollander
IP 5.1
HOME · HOU
Ryan Weiss
Ryan Weiss
IP 3.2

Lineups

AWAY · COL
  1. 1 Edouard Julien 2B
  2. 2 Tyler Freeman RF
  3. 3 TJ Rumfield 1B
  4. 4 Hunter Goodman C
  5. 5 Mickey Moniak LF
  6. 6 Ezequiel Tovar SS
  7. 7 Troy Johnston DH
  8. 8 Kyle Karros 3B
  9. 9 Brenton Doyle CF
HOME · HOU
  1. 1 Jose Altuve 2B
  2. 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
  3. 3 Isaac Paredes 3B
  4. 4 Carlos Correa SS
  5. 5 Christian Walker 1B
  6. 6 Joey Loperfido LF
  7. 7 Cam Smith RF
  8. 8 Taylor Trammell CF
  9. 9 Yainer Diaz C

Box score

  123456789 R
COL 001110000 3
HOU 200000000 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C / D+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · COL
Warren Schaeffer
C Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.9 R IBBs 1.9 R
HOME · HOU
Joe Espada
D+ Lineup 2.8 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · COL
3-6 W2 -7 run diff
WWL?LLLLLW
HOME · HOU
5-4 W1 -2 run diff
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Season series: 2-2 with COL listed first across 4 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Colorado Rockies
  • Manager lineup cost −0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.69 vs actual lineup 4.72
  • Player execution −1.72 R/G Players fell 1.72 short of the lineup's 4.72 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −1.69 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Julien 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Houston Astros
  • Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.78 vs actual lineup 2.75
  • Player execution −0.75 R/G Players fell 0.75 short of the lineup's 2.75 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −0.78 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Paredes 0-for-3 batting 3rd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 2.8 — actual was 3 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.