ARCHIVE April 16, 2026
April 16, 2026 · NL Cent

Toronto Blue Jays vs Milwaukee Brewers

April 16, 2026American Family FieldRoof Closed 71°F · 8 mph, In From LF
AWAY
Toronto Blue Jays
7-11
1
vs
HOME
Milwaukee Brewers
10-8
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · TOR
Patrick Corbin
Patrick Corbin
IP 5.2
HOME · MIL
Brandon Sproat
Brandon Sproat
IP 6.2

Lineups

AWAY · TOR
  1. 1 Davis Schneider LF
  2. 2 Daulton Varsho CF
  3. 3 Vladimir Guerrero DH
  4. 4 Jesús Sánchez RF
  5. 5 Lenyn Sosa 2B
  6. 6 Kazuma Okamoto 1B
  7. 7 Andrés Giménez SS
  8. 8 Ernie Clement 3B
  9. 9 Tyler Heineman C
HOME · MIL
  1. 1 Brandon Lockridge CF
  2. 2 Brice Turang 2B
  3. 3 William Contreras C
  4. 4 Gary Sánchez DH
  5. 5 Luis Rengifo 1B
  6. 6 Luis Matos RF
  7. 7 Greg Jones LF
  8. 8 David Hamilton 3B
  9. 9 Joey Ortiz SS

Box score

  123456789 R
TOR 001000000 1
MIL 000100100 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · TOR
John Schneider
B Lineup 0.3 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.3 R
HOME · MIL
Pat Murphy
B- Lineup 0.6 R Bunts 1.4 R IBBs 3.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · TOR
5-5 W1 +8 run diff
WLLLLWWLWW
HOME · MIL
6-3 W2 +33 run diff
WW?LLWWWLW

Season series: 1-2 with TOR listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Toronto Blue Jays
  • Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.65 vs actual lineup 4.65
  • Player execution −3.65 R/G Players fell 3.65 short of the lineup's 4.65 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −3.65 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Schneider 0-for-3 batting 1st

HOME · Milwaukee Brewers
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.72 vs actual lineup 3.74
  • Player execution −1.74 R/G Players fell 1.74 short of the lineup's 3.74 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.72 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lockridge 0-for-4 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 3.7 — actual was 1 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.