Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Brendan Donovan 3B
- 2 Cal Raleigh C
- 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
- 4 Josh Naylor 1B
- 5 Randy Arozarena LF
- 6 Luke Raley RF
- 7 Dominic Canzone DH
- 8 Cole Young 2B
- 9 Leo Rivas SS
- 1 Ramón Laureano LF
- 2 Jackson Merrill CF
- 3 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 4 Manny Machado 3B
- 5 Gavin Sheets DH
- 6 Nick Castellanos RF
- 7 Ty France 1B
- 8 Jake Cronenworth 2B
- 9 Freddy Fermin C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-3 with SEA listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.20 vs actual lineup 3.24
- Player execution +2.76 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.24 projection by 2.76 (scored 6)
- Game variance +2.80 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Rodríguez 0-for-4 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.07 vs actual lineup 3.02
- Player execution +3.98 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.02 projection by 3.98 (scored 7)
- Game variance +3.93 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Machado 0-for-3 batting 4th
Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 3.1 — actual was 6 – 7.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.