ARCHIVE April 15, 2026
April 15, 2026 · NL Cent

Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals

April 15, 2026Busch StadiumOvercast 72°F · 10 mph, R To L
AWAY
Cleveland Guardians
10-9
3
vs
HOME
St. Louis Cardinals
10-8
5

Starting pitchers

AWAY · CLE
Slade Cecconi
Slade Cecconi
IP 4
HOME · STL
Dustin May
Dustin May
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · CLE
  1. 1 Steven Kwan CF
  2. 2 Chase DeLauter RF
  3. 3 José Ramírez DH
  4. 4 Kyle Manzardo 1B
  5. 5 George Valera LF
  6. 6 Juan Brito 2B
  7. 7 Daniel Schneemann 3B
  8. 8 Bo Naylor C
  9. 9 Brayan Rocchio SS
HOME · STL
  1. 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
  2. 2 Iván Herrera DH
  3. 3 Alec Burleson 1B
  4. 4 Jordan Walker RF
  5. 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
  6. 6 Masyn Winn SS
  7. 7 Nathan Church LF
  8. 8 Pedro Pagés C
  9. 9 Victor Scott CF

Box score

  123456789 R
CLE 100000200 3
STL 010003100 5

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · CLE
Stephen Vogt
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · STL
Oliver Marmol
B- Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.3 R

Recent form

AWAY · CLE
6-4 W3 +7 run diff
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HOME · STL
7-2 W1 +13 run diff
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Season series: 1-2 with CLE listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Cleveland Guardians
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.69 vs actual lineup 4.71
  • Player execution −1.71 R/G Players fell 1.71 short of the lineup's 4.71 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −1.69 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

DeLauter 0-for-3 batting 2nd

HOME · St. Louis Cardinals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.22 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.95 vs actual lineup 4.73
  • Player execution +0.27 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.73 projection by 0.27 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +0.05 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Church 3-for-4 from the 7-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 5.0 — actual was 3 – 5.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.