Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Ketel Marte DH
- 2 Corbin Carroll RF
- 3 Geraldo Perdomo SS
- 4 Adrian Del Castillo C
- 5 Jose Fernandez 1B
- 6 Ildemaro Vargas 2B
- 7 Nolan Arenado 3B
- 8 Alek Thomas CF
- 9 Jorge Barrosa LF
- 1 Taylor Ward DH
- 2 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 3 Pete Alonso 1B
- 4 Johnathan Rodríguez RF
- 5 Weston Wilson LF
- 6 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
- 7 Coby Mayo 3B
- 8 Sam Huff C
- 9 Blaze Alexander CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| BAL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with AZ listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.83 vs actual lineup 4.84
- Player execution +3.16 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.84 projection by 3.16 (scored 8)
- Game variance +3.17 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Arenado 2-for-5 from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.59 vs actual lineup 3.53
- Player execution +1.47 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.53 projection by 1.47 (scored 5)
- Game variance +1.41 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Ward 0-for-5 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 3.6 — actual was 8 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.