Toronto Blue Jays vs Milwaukee Brewers
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Nathan Lukes RF
- 2 Daulton Varsho CF
- 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
- 4 Jesús Sánchez LF
- 5 Kazuma Okamoto DH
- 6 Ernie Clement 3B
- 7 Andrés Giménez SS
- 8 Lenyn Sosa 2B
- 9 Brandon Valenzuela C
- 1 Sal Frelick RF
- 2 William Contreras DH
- 3 Brice Turang 2B
- 4 Gary Sánchez C
- 5 Jake Bauers 1B
- 6 Brandon Lockridge LF
- 7 Garrett Mitchell CF
- 8 Joey Ortiz SS
- 9 David Hamilton 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with TOR listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.04 vs actual lineup 3.05
- Player execution −2.05 R/G Players fell 2.05 short of the lineup's 3.05 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −2.04 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.07 vs actual lineup 3.05
- Player execution −1.05 R/G Players fell 1.05 short of the lineup's 3.05 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.07 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Frelick 0-for-4 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 3.0 – 3.1 — actual was 1 – 2.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.