Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Tyler Freeman DH
- 2 Brenton Doyle CF
- 3 Hunter Goodman C
- 4 Willi Castro 2B
- 5 TJ Rumfield 1B
- 6 Ezequiel Tovar SS
- 7 Jordan Beck RF
- 8 Kyle Karros 3B
- 9 Jake McCarthy LF
- 1 Jose Altuve 2B
- 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
- 3 Isaac Paredes 3B
- 4 Carlos Correa SS
- 5 Christian Walker 1B
- 6 Cam Smith RF
- 7 Joey Loperfido CF
- 8 Brice Matthews LF
- 9 Christian Vázquez C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| HOU | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C / D+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-2 with COL listed first across 4 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.76 vs actual lineup 4.71
- Player execution +1.29 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.71 projection by 1.29 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.24 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Beck HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.46 vs actual lineup 2.40
- Player execution +4.60 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.40 projection by 4.60 (scored 7)
- Game variance +4.54 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Altuve 0-for-5 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 2.5 — actual was 6 – 7.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.