Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Roman Anthony LF
- 2 Caleb Durbin 3B
- 3 Masataka Yoshida DH
- 4 Willson Contreras 1B
- 5 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 6 Trevor Story SS
- 7 Jarren Duran CF
- 8 Carlos Narváez C
- 9 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B
- 1 Byron Buxton CF
- 2 Trevor Larnach LF
- 3 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 4 Josh Bell DH
- 5 Matt Wallner RF
- 6 Victor Caratini C
- 7 Kody Clemens 1B
- 8 Brooks Lee SS
- 9 Tristan Gray 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with BOS listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.10 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.78 vs actual lineup 3.68
- Player execution −3.68 R/G Players fell 3.68 short of the lineup's 3.68 projection (scored 0)
- Game variance −3.78 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Durbin 0-for-3 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.02 vs actual lineup 3.97
- Player execution +2.03 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.97 projection by 2.03 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.98 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lee HR from the 8-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.8 – 4.0 — actual was 0 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.