Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Ketel Marte 2B
- 2 Corbin Carroll RF
- 3 Geraldo Perdomo SS
- 4 Adrian Del Castillo C
- 5 Jose Fernandez DH
- 6 Ildemaro Vargas 1B
- 7 Nolan Arenado 3B
- 8 Alek Thomas CF
- 9 Jorge Barrosa LF
- 1 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 2 Taylor Ward LF
- 3 Pete Alonso 1B
- 4 Samuel Basallo C
- 5 Dylan Beavers DH
- 6 Leody Taveras CF
- 7 Colton Cowser RF
- 8 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
- 9 Blaze Alexander 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with AZ listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.13 vs actual lineup 4.14
- Player execution +2.86 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.14 projection by 2.86 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.87 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Arenado HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.98 vs actual lineup 4.93
- Player execution +4.07 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.93 projection by 4.07 (scored 9)
- Game variance +4.02 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Jackson HR from the 8-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.1 – 5.0 — actual was 7 – 9.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.