ARCHIVE April 12, 2026
April 12, 2026 · AL East

Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays

April 12, 2026Rogers CentreRoof Closed 68°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Minnesota Twins
9-7
8
vs
HOME
Toronto Blue Jays
6-9
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIN
Taj Bradley
Taj Bradley
IP 5
HOME · TOR
Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer
IP 2.1

Lineups

AWAY · MIN
  1. 1 Kody Clemens 1B
  2. 2 Trevor Larnach LF
  3. 3 Luke Keaschall 2B
  4. 4 Josh Bell DH
  5. 5 Matt Wallner RF
  6. 6 Victor Caratini C
  7. 7 Tristan Gray 3B
  8. 8 Brooks Lee SS
  9. 9 James Outman CF
HOME · TOR
  1. 1 Ernie Clement 2B
  2. 2 Daulton Varsho CF
  3. 3 Vladimir Guerrero 1B
  4. 4 Jesús Sánchez LF
  5. 5 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
  6. 6 Nathan Lukes RF
  7. 7 Eloy Jiménez DH
  8. 8 Andrés Giménez SS
  9. 9 Brandon Valenzuela C

Box score

  123456789 R
MIN 035000000 8
TOR 100000100 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B / B entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIN
Derek Shelton
B Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.5 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · TOR
John Schneider
B Lineup 0.3 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.3 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIN
3-7 L3 -21 run diff
LLLWWLLWLL
HOME · TOR
5-5 W1 +8 run diff
WLLLLWWLWW

Season series: 4-3 with MIN listed first across 7 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Minnesota Twins
  • Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.75 vs actual lineup 4.68
  • Player execution +3.32 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.68 projection by 3.32 (scored 8)
  • Game variance +3.25 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Gray HR from the 7-hole

HOME · Toronto Blue Jays
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.06 vs actual lineup 3.06
  • Player execution −1.06 R/G Players fell 1.06 short of the lineup's 3.06 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.06 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Jiménez 2-for-4 from the 7-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 3.1 — actual was 8 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.