Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Edouard Julien 2B
- 2 Tyler Freeman RF
- 3 Mickey Moniak LF
- 4 Hunter Goodman DH
- 5 TJ Rumfield 1B
- 6 Ezequiel Tovar SS
- 7 Brenton Doyle CF
- 8 Brett Sullivan C
- 9 Kyle Karros 3B
- 1 Ramón Laureano LF
- 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. 2B
- 3 Jackson Merrill CF
- 4 Manny Machado 3B
- 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 6 Nick Castellanos DH
- 7 Ty France 1B
- 8 Bryce Johnson RF
- 9 Freddy Fermin C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| SD | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-6 with COL listed first across 7 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.94 vs actual lineup 3.95
- Player execution −1.95 R/G Players fell 1.95 short of the lineup's 3.95 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.94 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Freeman 0-for-4 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost +0.11 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.72 vs actual lineup 4.61
- Player execution +2.39 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.61 projection by 2.39 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.28 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
France HR from the 7-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.9 – 4.7 — actual was 2 – 7.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.