Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Oneil Cruz CF
- 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
- 4 Ryan O'Hearn RF
- 5 Nick Yorke 3B
- 6 Marcell Ozuna DH
- 7 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 8 Konnor Griffin SS
- 9 Joey Bart C
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Moisés Ballesteros DH
- 3 Alex Bregman 3B
- 4 Ian Happ LF
- 5 Seiya Suzuki RF
- 6 Carson Kelly C
- 7 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 8 Dansby Swanson SS
- 9 Matt Shaw 1B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with PIT listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.13 vs actual lineup 4.11
- Player execution +1.89 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.11 projection by 1.89 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.87 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.40 vs actual lineup 4.35
- Player execution +2.65 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.35 projection by 2.65 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.60 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Swanson HR from the 8-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.1 – 4.4 — actual was 6 – 7.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.