Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jose Altuve 2B
- 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
- 3 Isaac Paredes 3B
- 4 Christian Walker 1B
- 5 Cam Smith RF
- 6 Joey Loperfido LF
- 7 Yainer Diaz C
- 8 Taylor Trammell CF
- 9 Nick Allen SS
- 1 Brendan Donovan 3B
- 2 Cal Raleigh C
- 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
- 4 Josh Naylor 1B
- 5 Randy Arozarena LF
- 6 Luke Raley RF
- 7 J.P. Crawford SS
- 8 Dominic Canzone DH
- 9 Cole Young 2B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| SEA | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade D+ / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-4 with HOU listed first across 4 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.10 vs actual lineup 4.04
- Player execution −3.04 R/G Players fell 3.04 short of the lineup's 4.04 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −3.10 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Diaz HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.92 vs actual lineup 4.94
- Player execution +1.06 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.94 projection by 1.06 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.08 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Donovan 0-for-3 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.1 – 4.9 — actual was 1 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.