Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Byron Buxton CF
- 2 Austin Martin RF
- 3 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 4 Ryan Jeffers C
- 5 Josh Bell DH
- 6 Victor Caratini 1B
- 7 Trevor Larnach LF
- 8 Brooks Lee SS
- 9 Ryan Kreidler 3B
- 1 George Springer DH
- 2 Daulton Varsho CF
- 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
- 4 Jesús Sánchez LF
- 5 Davis Schneider 2B
- 6 Nathan Lukes RF
- 7 Ernie Clement 3B
- 8 Andrés Giménez SS
- 9 Brandon Valenzuela C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| TOR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 4-3 with MIN listed first across 7 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.77 vs actual lineup 4.74
- Player execution +2.26 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.74 projection by 2.26 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.23 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lee HR from the 8-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.69 vs actual lineup 3.72
- Player execution +0.28 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.72 projection by 0.28 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.31 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 3.7 — actual was 7 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.