Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Oneil Cruz CF
- 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
- 4 Ryan O'Hearn RF
- 5 Marcell Ozuna DH
- 6 Nick Yorke 3B
- 7 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 8 Konnor Griffin SS
- 9 Henry Davis C
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Michael Busch 1B
- 3 Alex Bregman 3B
- 4 Ian Happ LF
- 5 Moisés Ballesteros DH
- 6 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 7 Miguel Amaya C
- 8 Michael Conforto RF
- 9 Dansby Swanson SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with PIT listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.52 vs actual lineup 3.52
- Player execution +0.48 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.52 projection by 0.48 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.48 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lowe 0-for-4 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.85 vs actual lineup 3.79
- Player execution −0.79 R/G Players fell 0.79 short of the lineup's 3.79 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.85 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Happ 0-for-5 batting 4th
Optimal lineups projected 3.5 – 3.9 — actual was 4 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.