San Francisco Giants vs Baltimore Orioles
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Willy Adames SS
- 2 Luis Arraez 2B
- 3 Matt Chapman 3B
- 4 Rafael Devers 1B
- 5 Casey Schmitt DH
- 6 Jung Hoo Lee RF
- 7 Heliot Ramos LF
- 8 Patrick Bailey C
- 9 Harrison Bader CF
- 1 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 2 Taylor Ward LF
- 3 Pete Alonso 1B
- 4 Samuel Basallo C
- 5 Ryan Mountcastle DH
- 6 Leody Taveras CF
- 7 Colton Cowser RF
- 8 Coby Mayo 3B
- 9 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| BAL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with SF listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.78 vs actual lineup 4.83
- Player execution −2.83 R/G Players fell 2.83 short of the lineup's 4.83 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −2.78 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Adames 0-for-3 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.52 vs actual lineup 4.47
- Player execution +1.53 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.47 projection by 1.53 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.48 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Jackson HR from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 4.5 — actual was 2 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.