Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jeremy Peña SS
- 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
- 3 Isaac Paredes 1B
- 4 Jose Altuve 2B
- 5 Carlos Correa 3B
- 6 Joey Loperfido LF
- 7 Cam Smith RF
- 8 Yainer Diaz C
- 9 Taylor Trammell CF
- 1 J.P. Crawford SS
- 2 Cal Raleigh C
- 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
- 4 Josh Naylor 1B
- 5 Randy Arozarena LF
- 6 Luke Raley RF
- 7 Cole Young 2B
- 8 Dominic Canzone DH
- 9 Leo Rivas 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| SEA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade D+ / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-4 with HOU listed first across 4 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.83 vs actual lineup 4.87
- Player execution +2.13 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.87 projection by 2.13 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.17 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Smith 4-for-5 from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.88 vs actual lineup 4.93
- Player execution +3.07 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.93 projection by 3.07 (scored 8)
- Game variance +3.12 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Naylor 0-for-4 batting 4th
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 4.9 — actual was 7 – 8.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.