New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Paul Goldschmidt 1B
- 2 Aaron Judge RF
- 3 Cody Bellinger CF
- 4 Giancarlo Stanton DH
- 5 Amed Rosario 3B
- 6 Jazz Chisholm 2B
- 7 Randal Grichuk LF
- 8 José Caballero SS
- 9 Austin Wells C
- 1 Chandler Simpson LF
- 2 Junior Caminero 3B
- 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 4 Yandy Díaz DH
- 5 Cedric Mullins CF
- 6 Jonny DeLuca RF
- 7 Ben Williamson 2B
- 8 Taylor Walls SS
- 9 Nick Fortes C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| TB | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-3 with NYY listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.30 vs actual lineup 4.29
- Player execution −1.29 R/G Players fell 1.29 short of the lineup's 4.29 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −1.30 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Bellinger 0-for-3 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.77 vs actual lineup 4.76
- Player execution +0.24 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.76 projection by 0.24 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.23 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Aranda 0-for-4 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 4.3 – 4.8 — actual was 3 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.