Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Byron Buxton CF
- 2 Austin Martin LF
- 3 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 4 Josh Bell 1B
- 5 Ryan Jeffers C
- 6 Victor Caratini DH
- 7 Matt Wallner RF
- 8 Brooks Lee SS
- 9 Tristan Gray 3B
- 1 George Springer DH
- 2 Daulton Varsho CF
- 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
- 4 Jesús Sánchez RF
- 5 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
- 6 Davis Schneider LF
- 7 Ernie Clement 2B
- 8 Andrés Giménez SS
- 9 Brandon Valenzuela C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 4-3 with MIN listed first across 7 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.80 vs actual lineup 3.78
- Player execution +0.22 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.78 projection by 0.22 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.20 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lee HR from the 8-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.12 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.64 vs actual lineup 4.76
- Player execution +5.24 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.76 projection by 5.24 (scored 10)
- Game variance +5.36 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Valenzuela HR from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.8 – 4.6 — actual was 4 – 10.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.