ARCHIVE April 10, 2026
April 10, 2026 · AL West

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners

April 10, 2026T-Mobile ParkOvercast 64°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Houston Astros
6-8
6
vs
HOME
Seattle Mariners
5-9
9

Starting pitchers

AWAY · HOU
J.P. France
J.P. France
IP 2.2
HOME · SEA
Emerson Hancock
Emerson Hancock
IP 5

Lineups

AWAY · HOU
  1. 1 Jeremy Peña SS
  2. 2 Yordan Alvarez LF
  3. 3 Jose Altuve DH
  4. 4 Isaac Paredes 2B
  5. 5 Christian Walker 1B
  6. 6 Carlos Correa 3B
  7. 7 Cam Smith RF
  8. 8 Joey Loperfido CF
  9. 9 Christian Vázquez C
HOME · SEA
  1. 1 J.P. Crawford SS
  2. 2 Cal Raleigh C
  3. 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
  4. 4 Josh Naylor 1B
  5. 5 Randy Arozarena LF
  6. 6 Luke Raley RF
  7. 7 Cole Young 2B
  8. 8 Dominic Canzone DH
  9. 9 Leo Rivas 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
HOU 030000030 6
SEA 300020400 9

Manager comparison

Both managers grade D+ / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · HOU
Joe Espada
D+ Lineup 2.8 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · SEA
Dan Wilson
B- Lineup 1.3 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · HOU
5-4 W1 -2 run diff
WLWLWWLLW?
HOME · SEA
5-5 W2 +2 run diff
WWLWLLLWWL

Season series: 0-4 with HOU listed first across 4 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Houston Astros
  • Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.20 vs actual lineup 3.18
  • Player execution +2.82 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.18 projection by 2.82 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +2.80 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Altuve 0-for-4 batting 3rd

HOME · Seattle Mariners
  • Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.83 vs actual lineup 4.90
  • Player execution +4.10 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.90 projection by 4.10 (scored 9)
  • Game variance +4.17 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Raleigh 0-for-3 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 4.8 — actual was 6 – 9.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.