Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Colt Keith 3B
- 2 Gleyber Torres DH
- 3 Riley Greene LF
- 4 Kerry Carpenter RF
- 5 Spencer Torkelson 1B
- 6 Zach McKinstry 2B
- 7 Javier Báez SS
- 8 Parker Meadows CF
- 9 Jake Rogers C
- 1 Byron Buxton CF
- 2 Trevor Larnach DH
- 3 Josh Bell 1B
- 4 Matt Wallner RF
- 5 Victor Caratini C
- 6 Kody Clemens 2B
- 7 Royce Lewis 3B
- 8 Tristan Gray SS
- 9 James Outman LF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-2 with DET listed first across 2 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.86 vs actual lineup 3.83
- Player execution −2.83 R/G Players fell 2.83 short of the lineup's 3.83 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −2.86 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Carpenter 0-for-4 batting 4th
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.80 vs actual lineup 4.75
- Player execution −1.75 R/G Players fell 1.75 short of the lineup's 4.75 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −1.80 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Buxton 0-for-3 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 3.9 – 4.8 — actual was 1 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.