Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Edouard Julien 2B
- 2 Mickey Moniak RF
- 3 Hunter Goodman C
- 4 Troy Johnston 1B
- 5 TJ Rumfield DH
- 6 Ezequiel Tovar SS
- 7 Willi Castro 3B
- 8 Jake McCarthy LF
- 9 Brenton Doyle CF
- 1 Jake Cronenworth 2B
- 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
- 3 Jackson Merrill CF
- 4 Manny Machado 3B
- 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 6 Gavin Sheets LF
- 7 Nick Castellanos DH
- 8 Ty France 1B
- 9 Freddy Fermin C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-6 with COL listed first across 7 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.11 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.08 vs actual lineup 2.97
- Player execution +0.03 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.97 projection by 0.03 (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.08 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Doyle HR from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.38 vs actual lineup 3.39
- Player execution +3.61 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.39 projection by 3.61 (scored 7)
- Game variance +3.62 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Merrill 0-for-4 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 3.4 — actual was 3 – 7.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.