Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Michael Busch 1B
- 3 Alex Bregman 3B
- 4 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 5 Carson Kelly C
- 6 Moisés Ballesteros DH
- 7 Dansby Swanson SS
- 8 Michael Conforto LF
- 9 Matt Shaw RF
- 1 Yandy Díaz DH
- 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 3 Jake Fraley RF
- 4 Junior Caminero 3B
- 5 Chandler Simpson LF
- 6 Ben Williamson 2B
- 7 Hunter Feduccia C
- 8 Jonny DeLuca CF
- 9 Taylor Walls SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-0 with CHC listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.55 vs actual lineup 3.49
- Player execution +2.51 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.49 projection by 2.51 (scored 6)
- Game variance +2.45 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Busch 0-for-4 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.02 vs actual lineup 4.03
- Player execution −2.03 R/G Players fell 2.03 short of the lineup's 4.03 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −2.02 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Díaz 0-for-3 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 3.5 – 4.0 — actual was 6 – 2.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.