San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Ramón Laureano LF
- 2 Fernando Tatis RF
- 3 Jackson Merrill CF
- 4 Manny Machado 3B
- 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 6 Gavin Sheets 1B
- 7 Miguel Andujar DH
- 8 Freddy Fermin C
- 9 Jake Cronenworth 2B
- 1 Oneil Cruz CF
- 2 Brandon Lowe DH
- 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
- 4 Ryan O'Hearn RF
- 5 Nick Yorke 3B
- 6 Nick Gonzales 2B
- 7 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 8 Konnor Griffin SS
- 9 Henry Davis C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-0 with SD listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.04 vs actual lineup 3.09
- Player execution −2.09 R/G Players fell 2.09 short of the lineup's 3.09 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −2.04 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Laureano 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.07 vs actual lineup 4.02
- Player execution +2.98 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.02 projection by 2.98 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.93 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lowe 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 3.0 – 4.1 — actual was 1 – 7.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.