Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Michael Busch 1B
- 3 Alex Bregman 3B
- 4 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 5 Miguel Amaya C
- 6 Moisés Ballesteros DH
- 7 Dansby Swanson SS
- 8 Michael Conforto LF
- 9 Matt Shaw RF
- 1 Yandy Díaz DH
- 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 3 Jake Fraley RF
- 4 Junior Caminero 3B
- 5 Chandler Simpson LF
- 6 Cedric Mullins CF
- 7 Nick Fortes C
- 8 Richie Palacios 2B
- 9 Taylor Walls SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-0 with CHC listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.84 vs actual lineup 4.80
- Player execution +4.20 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.80 projection by 4.20 (scored 9)
- Game variance +4.16 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Busch 0-for-5 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.74 vs actual lineup 4.72
- Player execution −2.72 R/G Players fell 2.72 short of the lineup's 4.72 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −2.74 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Díaz 0-for-3 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 4.7 — actual was 9 – 2.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.