ARCHIVE April 7, 2026
April 7, 2026 · NL West

Houston Astros vs Colorado Rockies

April 7, 2026Coors FieldPartly Cloudy 71°F · 6 mph, In From CF
AWAY
Houston Astros
6-6
1
vs
HOME
Colorado Rockies
5-6
5

Starting pitchers

AWAY · HOU
Mike Burrows
Mike Burrows
IP 5.1
HOME · COL
Kyle Freeland
Kyle Freeland
IP 6.1

Lineups

AWAY · HOU
  1. 1 Jeremy Peña SS
  2. 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
  3. 3 Jose Altuve 2B
  4. 4 Isaac Paredes 3B
  5. 5 Christian Walker 1B
  6. 6 Cam Smith RF
  7. 7 Jake Meyers CF
  8. 8 Yainer Diaz C
  9. 9 Brice Matthews LF
HOME · COL
  1. 1 Edouard Julien DH
  2. 2 Mickey Moniak CF
  3. 3 Ezequiel Tovar SS
  4. 4 Troy Johnston RF
  5. 5 TJ Rumfield 1B
  6. 6 Willi Castro 2B
  7. 7 Jordan Beck LF
  8. 8 Brett Sullivan C
  9. 9 Kyle Karros 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
HOU 010000000 1
COL 010200200 5

Manager comparison

Both managers grade D+ / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · HOU
Joe Espada
D+ Lineup 2.8 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · COL
Warren Schaeffer
C Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.9 R IBBs 1.9 R

Recent form

AWAY · HOU
5-4 W1 -2 run diff
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HOME · COL
3-6 W2 -7 run diff
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Season series: 2-2 with HOU listed first across 4 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Houston Astros
  • Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.53 vs actual lineup 3.50
  • Player execution −2.50 R/G Players fell 2.50 short of the lineup's 3.50 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −2.53 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Peña 0-for-3 batting 1st

HOME · Colorado Rockies
  • Manager lineup cost +0.15 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.79 vs actual lineup 4.64
  • Player execution +0.36 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.64 projection by 0.36 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +0.21 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Tovar 0-for-4 batting 3rd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.5 – 4.8 — actual was 1 – 5.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.